Archive for Commodities Research’ Category

30 Years Later: Can “Black Monday” Still Happen Today?
Nov

20

2017

30 Years Later: Can “Black Monday” Still Happen Today?

You Bet it Can. How to Protect Yourself with a Cup of Coffee. It’s October 19th, 1987. On the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, traders scurry about the floor, readying for the market’s 9:30 am open. Art Cashin, head of floor operations for PaineWebber turns to John Phelan, chairman of the Big Board. “Morituri te salutant,” he mutters. Translation: “We who are about…

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Call Premiums Still Inflated in Bearish Natural Gas Market
Oct

13

2017

Call Premiums Still Inflated in Bearish Natural Gas Market

Historic Volatility in Natural Gas is offering some attractive opportunities for “Fading the Herd” this Autumn “Buy Natural Gas heading into winter.” Its an old trading axiom that seems to make perfect sense. After all, colder weather should increase demand, making prices go up. It only makes sense to buy heading into winter and hold on for all of those easy profits, right? Wrong. Such…

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Post Harvest Soybeans Offer Potentially Double Premiums for Option Sellers
Oct

12

2017

Post Harvest Soybeans Offer Potentially Double Premiums for Option Sellers

With Bearish Fundamentals Now Clashing with a Bullish Seasonal Tendency – Sellers of Options can Rake in Premium on Both sides of the Market If you’ve followed our blog or the O.S.com newsletter for any period of time, you know that seasonal tendencies in commodities can be a great place to start when identifying premium collection opportunities. Nowhere is this more true than in the…

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Crude Oil Opportunity: Hurricanes Harvey and Irma Do Not Change Fundamentally Bearish Picture for Call Sellers
Sep

7

2017

Crude Oil Opportunity: Hurricanes Harvey and Irma Do Not Change Fundamentally Bearish Picture for Call Sellers

Crude Oil Opportunity: Hurricanes Harvey and Irma Do Not Change Fundamentally Bearish Picture for Call Sellers Despite recent media coverage of hurricanes, North Korea and other news, the crude market remains deliciously ripe for call sellers By: James Cordier Yikes! Atlantic Hurricanes? “Prices will Soar!” North Korean Missiles? “Stock up on Oil!” Heating Season on the Way? “Buy it all!” Oil bulls never seem to…

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The FUDOM Method of Selling Options
Aug

21

2017

The FUDOM Method of Selling Options

How to sell options with the highest odds of Expiring Worthless What is FUDOM? Opposite of what Most Option Books Teach Example: FUDOM vs. “Book Knowledge” Option Selling JULY 2014 COFFEE   Dr. John sells a July Coffee 2.15 call and 1.80 put – it’s how he was “taught” to sell options. The Problem JULY 2014 COFFEE   Coffee rallies then falls. Both of Dr….

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“Freeze Season” in Coffee is Opportunity for Call Sellers in 2017
Aug

15

2017

“Freeze Season” in Coffee is Opportunity for Call Sellers in 2017

With the 2017 Brazilian Harvest Wrapping up and a potentially record crop next year, a supply burden should keep prices in check into next year If you’re a mainstream investor used to gauging P/E ratios or milling through bond yields, selling options on coffee futures may sound like launching a trip to the moon. “Soft” commodities are also sometimes referred to as “exotics” – most…

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Summer Weather Rally Pumps Up Call Premiums in Corn, Soybeans
Jul

14

2017

Summer Weather Rally Pumps Up Call Premiums in Corn, Soybeans

Despite Dry Weather in the Northern Plains, Fundamentals Remain Bearish In both our corn and soybean articles from May and June, we highlighted a burdensome supply picture. However, you might have noticed that for both markets, we suggested summer weather rallies might offer opportunities for selling inflated call premium. If you’ve been waiting for one of those, you now have it. Over the past 2…

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Despite Weather Talk, Selling Calls Should Still be Solid Yield Builder in Supply Laden Corn
Jul

14

2017

Despite Weather Talk, Selling Calls Should Still be Solid Yield Builder in Supply Laden Corn

The Usual Weather Hoopla is Will Likely be Putting some Premium back into Call Options – a near perfect recipe for fundamentally focused option writers (Note to Readers: Since the original publication of this piece (in the July Option Seller Newsletter) Corn prices have climbed over 10% on a weather rally, and subsequently fallen back again. As the December calls in the article are no…

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Media Helps Call Sellers in Supply Laden Crude
Jun

7

2017

Media Helps Call Sellers in Supply Laden Crude

News Coverage and a Bump from Seasonal Demand are Again Making Call Sales in Crude a Cash Flow Opportunity “Oil Prices Rise as US Tanks Drain.” That was the headline of the lead commodity article in the May 18th edition of The Wall Street Journal. This is the tone the recent coverage crude oil is receiving from investment media as frenzied reporters gape over talk…

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Call Sales are Still a Cash Cow in Supply Burdened Soybeans
May

16

2017

Call Sales are Still a Cash Cow in Supply Burdened Soybeans

Despite a recent dive in prices, the fundamentals should keep bean prices struggling for some time Buy low and sell high. It’s the cornerstone philosophy of investing that has been pounded into us since we looked at our first price chart. New converts to commodities, however, learn that selling high and buying back lower can be just as easy – and just as (if not…

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How to Make Money from Grain Fundamentals
May

8

2017

How to Make Money from Grain Fundamentals

Knowing what is really moving grain prices can give you a leg up as an Option Seller As planting season kicks into high gear in the US during the month of May, traders of soybeans, corn, wheat and cotton will be keeping a keen eye on fundamentals. During planting season, the supply side fundamentals for the whole year can develop in a matter of weeks….

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Springtime Income Opportunities in Natural Gas
May

3

2017

Springtime Income Opportunities in Natural Gas

Seasonal Supply Build Sets up High Probability Plays for Call Sellers In our February Trade Advisory, we outlined a case for higher natural gas prices into the spring. This primarily based on the seasonal tendency for natural gas prices to rise as supplies worked towards a low at the end of winter. Indeed, supplies did continue to decline through the spring – following typical seasonal…

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May

2

2017

How to Get Real Diversification in your Portfolio: The 6 Alternative Investments You MUST Know About

Click To Read Video Transcript (Video Transcript) Hi. This is Michael Gross, co-author of “McGraw-Hill’s The Complete Guide to Option Selling” and also director of research here at OptionSellers.com. I'm here with your bi-monthly video lesson. The topic of this month's lesson is “Real Diversification” and we're going to go off the grid a little bit here this week and talk about something that's on...

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