Archive for Market Commentary’ Category

US/Turkey Dispute, Seasonal Fundamentals Could Sink Cotton Prices
Aug

15

2018

US/Turkey Dispute, Seasonal Fundamentals Could Sink Cotton Prices

Higher cotton prices looking unlikely into years end Selling call options could be solid play for cash yield I am a strong proponent of NEVER trying to trade off of mainstream news stories. That being said, this does not mean there can’t be less obvious, fundamentally based plays as a result of such stories. In this month’s update, we present a new opportunity for selling…

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Big Picture: “Is it REALLY a Good Time to be Selling Options?”
Aug

8

2018

Big Picture: “Is it REALLY a Good Time to be Selling Options?”

Uncertain times: Is it too risky to be investing right now? A surprising question yields an unexpected answer I had a new client orientation call last week with a very nice retired couple from Northern California. For the purpose of this letter, I will call them Mr. and Mrs. Smith. Mr. Smith is a somewhat experienced stock option seller. He was familiar with the results…

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Uncorrelated Income from the Wheat Market
Jul

13

2018

Uncorrelated Income from the Wheat Market

With Weather Worries Now Behind, Prices May Soon Give Way to Seasonal Pressures China Trade Tensions Could be Added Bonus “Call Sellers Market” As the mainstream investing world wrings its hands over Chinese tariffs and their effects on asset prices, those of us in the option world are already building out strategies for turning this into cash. Bull or bear markets are largely irrelevant to…

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How to Gain Freedom AND Security in Your Portfolio
Jul

6

2018

How to Gain Freedom AND Security in Your Portfolio

Those who desire to give up freedom in order to gain security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one.– Benjamin Franklin Mr. Franklin may have uttered these words when a good part of America was in a mood to drop the gloves and slug it out. But like many Franklin quotes, its message rings as true today as it did in the 18th…

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Soybeans: Is Overreaction to China Tariff Threat Creating Opportunities for Put Sellers?
Jun

20

2018

Soybeans: Is Overreaction to China Tariff Threat Creating Opportunities for Put Sellers?

Soybeans appear to have already priced in a worst case scenario for supply and tariffs. But there is a long growing season ahead. Opportunities for Option Cash Flow In our April 6 feature on Soybeans , you read a suggestion for selling deep out of the money soybean calls. This based on bearish soybean fundamentals. You also learned that if China targeted US soybeans in…

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One Way to Make Money vs. Many Ways to Make Money
Jun

14

2018

One Way to Make Money vs. Many Ways to Make Money

“Buy and Hope” Can be an Overrated Investment Approach It was about 8:00 pm a few weeks ago when a frantic pounding at the front door jolted me out of the 1st period of a Tampa Bay Lightning playoff game. Slightly alarmed, I answered the door. It was my long time neighbor, Shelly. Shelly has had a rough time of it as of late. Her…

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IRAN, OPEC: What’s Next for Oil Prices? Option Sellers Need Not Decide
May

11

2018

IRAN, OPEC: What’s Next for Oil Prices? Option Sellers Need Not Decide

Despite the Media Handwringing over Iran, Sky High Crude Oil Prices Could Face Headwinds Soon. The REAL opportunity could be on BOTH Sides of the Market. President Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement has the media frothing at the mouth about the potential for yet higher oil prices. What does it mean? Iranian barrels off the market? A budding war in Syria between Israel…

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Chinese Trade War: “Good” or “Bad” for Commodities?
May

10

2018

Chinese Trade War: “Good” or “Bad” for Commodities?

Big Picture The End Result Could be a Cash Cow for Option Writers As if rising interest rates weren’t enough, widespread concern over a potential US trade war with China rattled stock investors this month. The whipsaw action in the DOW is once again causing responsible investors to ask – Are stocks really the best place for me to be in today’s age of turbulence?…

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Cotton Supply Outlook Should Favor Call Selling Strategy Now
Mar

2

2018

Cotton Supply Outlook Should Favor Call Selling Strategy Now

Cotton Prices Have Been Trending Higher, Driving Up Call Premiums. But the Tables Now Appear Ready to Turn. Cotton prices have been a prime benefactor of growing world economies and overseas demand. Since a post harvest low back in October, cotton prices have rallied by nearly 12%. This has helped inflate call option premiums in the cotton market nicely. But with Spring approaching, a not-so-bullish…

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Commodities Hold up Face of Stock Market Crash
Feb

9

2018

Commodities Hold up Face of Stock Market Crash

Commodities, Option Writing Prove Valuable Diversifiers Amid Stock Chaos “…consumers will still buy cigarettes and eat cereal regardless of economic conditions.” – CNBC.com By: James Cordier, OptionSellers.com The forest fire in the stock market this week has presented a range of questions for high net worth investors with significant portions of their wealth at stake. What to do? Where to go? Sell or hold? Is…

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Crazy for Cryptos!
Feb

8

2018

Crazy for Cryptos!

The CME launched its highly publicized Bitcoin futures contract last month. Should you Make Room for Crypto Currencies in YOUR Portfolio? Aside from the nosedive of the US stock market this week , there is no hotter investment story in 2018 than the rise of the cryptocurrency. And the rock star of them all is Bitcoin. If you think the recent crash in bitcoin’s value…

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Bearish Wheat Presents High-Odds Playing Field for Call Sellers
Jan

23

2018

Bearish Wheat Presents High-Odds Playing Field for Call Sellers

Record Global Ending Stocks Make Out of the Money Call Strikes look Expensive – Despite Volatility While selling options on commodities contracts may sound like an exotic and/or glamorous investment strategy, in reality it’s more show up for work and follow a formula. The Formula is called FUDOM* and its steps are simple: Find a Market with Clear Fundamentals – Bullish or Bearish Sell Deep…

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The Magic of Selling Strangles
Dec

14

2017

The Magic of Selling Strangles

Option Selling Institute With powerful advantages for the seller, a strangle should be a core strategy for your option writing portfolio Looking for a basic option selling strategy that can give youpotentially higher return on equity and enhanced risk protection? Look no further than a basic option strangle, a staple strategy for any serious option writer. A short option strangle is applied by selling both…

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Taking the “Fun” Out of Baseball and Investing
Dec

12

2017

Taking the “Fun” Out of Baseball and Investing

The Application of Odds Theory is making Major League Baseball Boring. But as Guys like Jim Crane, Charlie Munger and Warren Buffet know, Boring can pay Big Dividends. In 1999 I founded this firm with the intention of specializing in Selling Options. What you may not know is that at that time, I worked with a group of futures traders. They came with me to…

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Post Harvest Soybeans Offer Potentially Double Premiums for Option Sellers
Oct

12

2017

Post Harvest Soybeans Offer Potentially Double Premiums for Option Sellers

With Bearish Fundamentals Now Clashing with a Bullish Seasonal Tendency – Sellers of Options can Rake in Premium on Both sides of the Market If you’ve followed our blog or the O.S.com newsletter for any period of time, you know that seasonal tendencies in commodities can be a great place to start when identifying premium collection opportunities. Nowhere is this more true than in the…

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